Objectivity and Conspiracy

So far, in my combing the evidence regarding al-Queda and the "events known as 9/11" I have been very hesitant to form and "conclusions" because I think this is precisely where propaganda and parnoid theories start and real evidence ends. However, I think I have seen enough to say that I can think of three possibilities of "causality" that could be associated with our governments actions. I now pose these in order of seriousness of the implications, not of the likeliness that they are "true". I am fairly certain that there will never be a way to conclusively prove any of them beyond doubt (besides the first). And therein is the tragedy of history.

However, because I am currently working with Kant, I have decided to rate these three with his criteria for logical proof: Possible, Plausible, and Necessarily So.

First Possibility- necessarily so (best-case):

The FBI and the CIA ignored evidence and completely missed the opportunity to stop the largest and most ambitious terrorist attack on US soil despite the ease with which they could have done so, for no apparent reason other than bureaucratical idiocy. (This is basically what the 9/11 comission said, in not so strong language.)

Second Possibility- plausible (scary):

Certain high ranking members in the FBI and the CIA knew a large and ambitious terrorist attack was imminent, and although the did not know the details, pulled in the reigns of their organizations to allow the terrorist attack to take place. The motivation could be to create a lasting political image that would change the face of US politics corresponding to the ideology of neo-cons like the PNAC (although it should be noted this process was already in place before the Bush administration took power).

Third Possibility- possible (surreal):

al-queda is a front organization still being controlled by the CIA in order to create an impetus for armed conflict and american military domination post-communism. The attacks were planned and executed by the CIA and their operatives with the complacency of the FBI. The NSA is probably in their somewhere, but they cover their tracks better than the other two.


I only upgraded #2 to plausible today, because I read the text of Operation Northwood. Although that operation was never carried out, it only would have needed the approval of Kennedy and McNamara to go through, and then it would have been history, and we never would have known. Then I stopped to think, if this idea was suggested to Bush and Rumsfeld, would they say yes or no? Would allowing the deaths of a few thousand american civilians (or, only a few hundred, seeing as I don't think they counted on the WTC actually collapsing) be too much of a price for free ideological reign? Hence: plausible.